William Moore's market views are centered around his many relationships with Agricultural producers. His weekly newsletter, AGMASTER, provides a blend of fundamental & technical information used to make prudent hedging decisions. Contact Mr. Moore at (312) 264-4337
Needless to say, one of the more confusing USDA Reports I’ve seen – over the years – with production/yield #’s friendly –but being overshadowed by slumping demand due to the tariffs! Still with harvest near the end & promising trade talks on 11/30, the bearishness seemed unwarranted – and indeed, the mkt agreed – rallying strongly on Friday!
FACTORS IMPACTING THE MKT
- EXPORTS – Mon Inspections were 1,254,057 (900-1,300) –
Thur Sales were 392,000 (400 – 700)
- HARVEST PROGRESS – Beans are 83% in (lw – 63 avg – 77)
Ill – 93 (87) Ind – 93 (77) Iowa – 72 (76)
- USDA NOV CROP REPORT – was definitely a two-sided affair – with friendly prod/yield #’s but burdensome stocks due to the tariffs – but when all the smoke cleared, the mkt was able to eke out a nearly steady close for the week – which in turn maintained all the gains from last week after the infamous “Trump Tweet”!
Production – 4,660 (avg – 4676 Oct – 4690)
Yield 52.1 (avg – 53.0 Oct – 53.1)
US Stocks 955 (avg – 900 Oct – 885)
Global 112.1 (avg – 110 Oct – 110)
- TRADE TALKS – 11/30 – G-20 SUMMIT – no details yet but this particular “rumor/fact” seems to have some traction – unlike many before it – what with the timing of the Mid-Terms & the fact that since Trump tweeted this out last week, the mkt has sustained the gains!
- OUTSIDE MKTS – have not been friends of the grain complex lately – as crude has plummeted $16 (20%) since Oct 1 & the dollar – after breaking 150 points off its highs, has gained it all back!
- WANING HARVEST PRESSURE – with harvest over three-quarters done, the formidable bearish presence that is “harvest pressure” is definitely in the rear view mirror
- SOUTH AMERICAN PLANTING – is proceeding at a near record pace clearly, the 800 pound gorilla in the room is the US/China tariffs! We have reason to believe that were “on the road to resolution”! First, the mkt has retained the gains from last week when favorable trade rhetoric first surfaced! Second, Trump can resolve trade deals – as he has shown with NAFTA! And third, the current trade war is harmful to BOTH the US & China – a fact not lost on their leaders
An even bigger an enigma out of the Nov Crop Report was the Corn #’s! The Prod & yield #’s were quite friendly with yield dropping almost 2 bushels an acre – but The USDA somehow rebalanced the World Carry-out allowing for China stocks – which nearly doubled the World carry-out! Which more than cancelled the good news generated by the lower production & yield! So the Dec Corn contract – as a result – lost a couple of cents from the pre-report close!
FACTORS IMPACTING THE MKT
- EXPORTS – Mon Inspections were 1,254,000 (900-1,300) & Thur Sales were 701,000 (600-900) Mon 11/5 – Mexico bought 101,745 MMT
- HARVEST PROGRESS – Corn is 76% in (lw – 63 avg – 77)
Ill – 93 (87) Ind – 93(77) Iowa – 72(76)
- NOV USDA REPORT – an off-the-wall China rebalance skewed the world stocks to the high side
Production – 14,626 (avg – 14,711 Oct – 14,778)
Yield – 178.9 (avg – 180 Oct – 180.7)
US Stocks 1736 (avg – 1781 Oct – 1813)
Global 307.5 (avg – 158.6 Oct – 159.4)
- DISAPPOINTING MKT ACTION – all the #’s on the Nov Report with the exception of the World Stocks were friendly – the tariffs really don’t concern corn, harvest is almost over & demand has been robust – yet corn turned in a very lackluster performance even though the mkt didn’t act like it, the Corn Fundamentals are the best in the grain complex. We think the Nov Crop Report may have been a slight aberration – and that the ship will right itself this coming week!!
Since Mid-Sept , Dec Wht has been confined to a 30 cent range (495-525) as it monitors the corn & bean harvest, the continuing strong Russian grain export program, marginal crop conditions in Europe & US/China trade rhetoric! But the most salient issue would most certainly be Russia! It’s hard to think they can continue their unrelenting export pace for much longer! And when that slows, the door should swing open for the US & prices should respond accordingly!
Dec Cat closed well under its 7 week trading range (116-119) as the mkt succumbed to a huge supply of all meat & strong seasonal pressures – closing down on the week $2.50! In doing so, it also suffered some technical damage – breaking out of its range downside & retracing more of than 50% of its late Aug/late Sept upmove! The mkt has been struggling with burdensome supplies all year but strong demand has kept it afloat – until this week – as turkeys & hams pushed beef out of the spotlight going into Thanksgiving!
While Dec cat had a major technical break down, Dec Hogs declined to the bottom of their recent trading range (54 – 60). Both are dealing with record short-term meat supplies, but hogs have a few “aces in the hole” that have helped them stay relatively stable this Fall
- A still significant discount to cash
- Seasonal demand for turkeys & hams
- ASIAN SWINE FEVER still lurking in China & elsewhere