William Moore's market views are centered around his many relationships with Agricultural producers. His weekly newsletter, AGMASTER, provides a blend of fundamental & technical information used to make prudent hedging decisions. Contact Mr. Moore at (312) 264-4337
A friendly USDA Report last Thur coupled with widespread harvest-delaying rain has ignited a 50 cent rally in Nov Beans – reaching the highest levels since late August! However, the mkt quickly became overbought – as producer selling and a resumption of harvest combined to stall the rally. Still – as of this writing, the mkt is higher on the week!
FACTORS IMPACTING THE MKT
- EXPORTS – Thur Sales were (600,000 – 1,000,000) and Monday Inspections were 1,157,000 MMT (500 – 700)
- HARVEST PROGRESS – For the first time this year, bean harvest fell behind the 5-average – however it has resumed in may areas due to drying conditions – overall 38 % in (lw -32 avg – 53)
Ill – 60 (55) IND – 51 (49) IOWA – 19 (51)
- USDA OCT REPORT – 10-11-18 – was most certainly a “friendly surprise” – with most of the trade leaning bearish going in- so more of a relief that it wasn’t a big “bearish bombshell” – than anything else!
Production – 4,690 (avg – 4,733 Sept – 4,693)
Yield – 53.1 (avg – 53.4 Sept – 52.8)
US Stocks – 885 (avg – 907 Sept – 845)
- INCLEMENT WEATHER – the heavy harvest delaying rains have had a big impact on production – especially as high as it was previously estimated! Not that we won’t have a large crop – but not as big as previously thought! So the top end has been eliminated – and with the fragility of a ripe bean crop, there may be more losses ahead
- HOPEFUL TRADE RESOLUTION – when the NAFTA deal was finalized, hope abounded that a China/US deal could be next but nothing so far! but several political events in November – the Mid-term elections on 11/6 & the G-20 summit on 11/30 – have brightened expectations that some kind of deal will be forged! 10 year lows & weather-induced yield reductions have combined to generate “ early harvest lows” just under 815 in Mid-Sept! From here on, DEMAND will be the biggest determinant in deciding how far we can rally – Domestic demand is already stellar with another record crush being announced this week – export demand has been hanging in there – but obviously would get a huge shot in the arm from a US/China Trade Resolution!
Dec Corn is 70 cents off a 10 year low but $7.30 off its 10 year high – would you rather buy it or sell it! Of course, that’s a “trick question” – you normally can’t trade price! But now may be an exception – considering we’ve had an extraordinary, once-in-a-generation market event occur – namely our tariff war with China! And should it be resolved relatively soon, that resolution coupled with our very robust level of exports would make corn calls a very attractive entity!
FACTORS IMPACTING THE MKT
- EXPORTS – Mon Inspections were 996,000 MT (1.2 – 1.5) & Thur Sales were 382,000 MT (800 – 1.3)
- HARVEST PROGRESS – rain has slowed combining but it’s still ahead of the average pace – 39% in – (lw-34, avg -35)
Ill – 71 (54) Ind – 51(39) Iowa – 17 (24)
- USDA OCT REPORT – amongst all the bearishness in the past 3-4 months, what a pleasant surprise to get some positive numbers from the USDA – Not only was the corn yield under estimates but it was also under Sept!
Production – 14,778 (exp – 14,851 Sept – 14,827)
Yield 180.7 (exp – 181.8 Sept – 181.3)
US Stocks 1913 (exp – 1932 Sept – 1774)
- BRAZIL PLANTING – summer corn planting is 44% complete( ly – 37 avg – 38)
- DRY WEATHER RE-ACTIVATES HARVEST – after several weeks of rain & snow, harvest has resumed – much to the delight of producers – especially those in Iowa!
- WHAT’S AHEAD? –The completion of harvest & the Nov Crop Report – the final USDA Report for 2018! The yields are expected to come in lower than the September report Sept harvest lows were confirmed by recent mkt action – from these historically cheap levels & with the prodigious exports we’ve had, strong rallies are very probable – especially with some positive news on the Trade Front!!
Dec Wht has stubbornly stayed in a tight 25 cent range (505-530) since Mid-Sept! This seems innocuous enough except in the context of what Dec Corn & Nov Beans have done in the same time period – Beans up 75 cents & Corn up 36 cents! So, relatively speaking, the wht action has been very disappointing! The problem is Russian wht is cheaper on the world mkt than the US! What we need is the often-promised reduction in Russian Wht Exports – which would shift business our way!
Much like Dec Wht, the Dec Cat contract has been likewise range-bound(116-119) since Mid-Sept! In this case, the two conflicting forces are excellent demand & a hefty supply of mkt-ready cattle coming down the pike! But an additional factor working against the price is the unseasonable premium Dec Cat holds to cash – which implies a certain amount of bullishness is already built in! That seemed to “come home to roost” this week as the contract slipped to the low end of the range! Going forward, a 2.9% production increase in the 4th Qtr & a 3.4% increase in the 1st Qtr will weigh on the mkt – plus a COF Report this Friday – expected to show total on-feed 6% over last year!
Dec Hogs sudden $6.50 plummet (58.50 – 52.00) in the past three days is a real shocker – given the 1200 point discount Dec Hogs held to cash – plus the Swine Flu Epidemic sweeping thru China! But the reality of increasing slaughter weights looked to be overcoming Demand- forcing a downside break-out from Dec Hogs recent range (54-60)!
Questions? Ask Bill Moore today at 312-264-4337