William Moore's market views are centered around his many relationships with Agricultural producers. His weekly newsletter, AGMASTER, provides a blend of fundamental & technical information used to make prudent hedging decisions. Contact Mr. Moore at (312) 264-4337
They say BIG CROPS GET BIGGER – but they don’t have to – as evidenced by the Oct 10 USDA Report where yields came under estimates & production came under last month! In addition, yesterday’s 800 point plunge in the DJI pushed beans lower – but not egregiously so! Both of these seem to confirm early harvest lows in Mid-Sept are already in!!
FACTORS IMPACTING THE MKT
- EXPORTS- Tues Inspections were 569,000 MT (500-900) – Thur Sales were 1.52 MMT (1.3 – 2.05)
- HARVEST PROGRESS – recent heavy rains have taken a toll on combining
But not as bad as you’d think – 32% in (lw – 23, avg – 36)
Ill – 51 ( avg – 39) Ind – 40 ( avg – 34) Iowa -18 ( avg- 31)
- OCT USDA REPORT – 10/11 – needless to say, the over-riding sentiment was leaning bearish going in – especially after the past two reports –
But recent rains took a bigger toll than thought – leading to #’s generally less than expected –
Production – 4.690 BB (est – 4.733, Sept – 4.693)
Yield – 53.1 B/A (est – 53.4, Sept – 52.8)
US Stocks 885 MB (est- 907 Sept – 845)
Global 110 MT (est – 109 Sept – 108)
- TRADE RHETORIC – NAFTA is a done-deal but no news on the US/China front
- TOO WET TO HARVEST – many of my producer customers have been
Shut out – although cooler, drier weather is forecast for this W/E!
- OUTSIDES ARE HURTING – yesterday the DJI was down 800 & today another 250 Crude oil has lost $3 the last 2 days we have been inundated with bearish news for 6 months – starting with Trump Tariffs & more recently record yields – and now inclement weather has apparently taking the top end off our production! So we feel that adds up to “early harvest lows” – Which coincide with 10 year lows – “enough is enough”!!
Needless to say, the trade was expecting a bearish report and was quite surprised when the corn yield came in under both the estimate (181.8) and Sept (181.3) at 180.7! In addition, in light of the 2-day stock mkt melt-down (1500 points) and the ongoing trade tariffs a little bit of good news was more than welcome. Make no mistake, we still have a substantial crop but obviously rainy weather has taken the top end out – & confirmed harvest lows are in!
FACTORS IMPACTING THE MKT
- EXPORTS – Tues Inspections were 1.351 MMT (1.0-1.4) – Thur Sales were 1.43 MMT (1.1-1.9)
- HARVEST PROGRESS – surprisingly, corn is ahead of average despite the recent very rainy period – 34% (lw-26, avg -26)
Ill – 63 (41) Ind – 39 (27) Iowa – 15 (13)
- USDA OCT CROP REPORT – 10/11 – there was a pervasive fear that this report would be another bearish bombshell but NOT – as yield & production came in under September!
Production – 14,778 (est – 14,851 Sept – 14,827)
Yield 180.7 (est – 181.8 Sept – 181.3)
US Stocks 1.813 (est – 1,932 Sept – 1774)
Global 159.4 (est – 159.2 Sept – 157.0)
- TRADE RUMORS – NAFTA is done – but what we really need is resolution of the US/China – maybe the Mid-term elections will expedite that we widely suspected that HARVEST LOWS were in & this report –seems to validate that – in fact it shows that in the years yields rose from August to September – and then went down in October, that they continued to decline in the Nov & Jan Reports! A close today over the 370 congestion area in Dec corn would lend technical corroboration!
Since Mid-Sept, Dec Wht has been range-bound (505-530) with the push-and-pull of USDA Reports, Corn & bean harvest, Russian Exports, Tariffs & global Wht production issues rocking the mkts
- Russia keeps threatening to limit exports due to a bad crop but so far nothing has been announced
- The USDA OCT CROP REPORT was friendly across the board
- US Wht is cheap enough to be competitive on the world mkt
- Global Wht Production has been hurt by adverse weather
- Corn & Bean harvest lows appear to be in
- The US Dollar continues to be firm – discouraging exports
For the past month, Dec Cat has managed to hold a tight range (116.50-119.50) just off the highs of the year- as excellent demand has counter-balanced burdensome production keeping the mkt sideways! But the unseasonal, stout premium to cash held by Dec Cat has come home to roost –and the mkt has succumbed to a jump in avg weights – brought on by cheap corn & producers intentions to feed to heavier weights! And Demand just can’t keep up!
Bill MooreQuestions? Ask Bill Moore today at 312-264-4337