William Moore's market views are centered around his many relationships with Agricultural producers. His weekly newsletter, AGMASTER, provides a blend of fundamental & technical information used to make prudent hedging decisions. Contact Mr. Moore at (312) 264-4337
A case can easily be made that early harvest lows are already in – the latest mkt action seems to corroborate that – two negative September USDA Reports & record yields were unable to force the mkt down in Sept – as Nov Beans were up 2 cents for the month! The NAFTA Resolution & rainy harvest weather has helped support the mkt in recent days!
FACTORS IMPACTING THE MKT
- EXPORTS – Thur Sales were 872,000 MT (600-1.000) & Mon Inspections were 591,115 MT (718,825)
26 Sept 650,387 Mexico
24 Sept 162,000 Unk
17 Sept 241,000 Unk
13 Sept 108,010 Mexico
13 Sept 120,000 Unk
10 Sept 132,000 Unk
- QTRLY GRAIN STOCKS – was unexpectedly bearish but the “down” was short-lived as the NAFTA resolution neutralized it
Qtly Stks – 438 MB (est – 394, 1222)
- CROP CONDITIONS – harvest is 23% in (lw – 14, avg -20)
Ill – 35 (20) Ind – 24 (19) Iowa – 15 (12)
- NAFTA TRADE AGREEMENT – coming out of a very negative trade environment this year – comes the wonderful news that the US, Canada & Mexico have hammered out a new trade agreement – Can US/China be far behind?
- HARVEST DELAYING RAINS – when you’re counting on record-breaking yields, it doesn’t take a lot to take the “top end” out!
- 10 YEAR LOWS – it’s an age-old commodity axiom – don’t trade price – just because the price is low – doesn’t mean – that it’s a good value – but positive mkt action at a low price – is another thing! The WORSE CASE SCENARIO is already dialed in – anything short of that in terms of disappointing yields – somewhere- and resolved trade issues (eg. – NAFTA) Makes current prices very attractive!!
The mkt is acting “upish” – meaning the “bad news” price breaks seem to be short-lived – and the “good news” rallies (eg: NAFTA) are sustaining themselves! A case in point is the USDA Qtly Stocks Report last Friday which sent prices tumbling almost a dime! But 2 days later after NAFTA’S resolution & some robust exports – Dec Corn was right off of its Sept highs & some 25 cents off its Sept lows! So lately, the “path of least resistance” seems to be up! Which indicates much of the” bearish S & D” has already been dialed in!
FACTORS IMPACTING THE MKT
EXPORTS – Thur sales were 1.71 MMT (900 – 1.3) & Mon Inspections were 1,344, 689 MMT (1,353,137)
25 SEPT 239,630 MMT Mexico
21 SEPT 121,700 Unk
20 Sept 160,000 Mexico
13 Sept 142,876 Costa Rica
11 Sept 138,000 South Korea
5 SEPT 101,736 Mexico
- QTLY GRAIN STOCKS – FRI – 9-28-18 – the number was a bearish surprise 2,140 BB (exp – 2002) & the mkt reacted
Accordingly- but the down only lasted one day as NAFTA resolution came to the rescue
- CROP RATINGS – Corn harvest is 26% in (lw – 14 avg – 20)
Ill – 48 (25) Ind – 27 (17) Iowa – 11 (6)
- NAFTA – a new deal has been cut with Mexico & Canada –
Not that corn exports have been a laggard this year as they routinely run over 1.000MMT for every exports session
- TOO MUCH RAIN – may keep corn yields around 181-182
In a normal year, harvest lows normally appear about ½ way thru harvest but 2018 is a special year with a nasty tandem of tariffs & record yields beating on the mkts for the last 2-3 months! Therefore, given the chart formation & the mkt action since Labor Day, we feel the HL’s are in already in – with the mkt comfortably sitting 25 cents off its Sept Lows!
Dec Wht has been effectively range bound for 3-4 weeks (495-530) – as it awaits the record yield reports from the corn & bean harvests, digests the USDA Qtly Stocks Report & reacts to rumors may begin to restrict exports! After all the smoke has cleared, the Mkt finds itself at the top end of its recent range – emboldened by the NAFTA Resolution & the fact that US Wht is cheap enough now to be competitive on the world mkt!
Amazingly, Dec Cat is snugging up against 6-mon highs despite a massive influx of production – as validated by recent USDA Meat Reports – a COF, a Cold Storage & most recently a Pig Crop! But answering this glut is a surge of demand – bolstered by the highest Consumer Confidence in 15 years – keeping this mkt in a tight range right off its highs of the year! The NAFTA Agreement was “unexpected pleasure” delivered by Trump last W/E that has very positive implications for our export program!
Dec Hogs had a 3- day $5.50 vertical run-up Thur-Mon (54.50-60.00) off mostly Macro news – The Asian Swine Flu, packing plant closures due to the Hurricane & the NAFTA Resolution! This was especially impressive – given the heavy supplies inundating the hog complex & the premium it’s carrying to cash! Much like in the cattle, DEMAND is played a big role in the price surge! Today’s sharp correction down comes as no surprise – Given its overbought nature following the sharp rally!
Bill MooreQuestions? Ask Bill Moore today at 312-264-4337